2025 didn't follow the script anyone wrote. Winners and losers switched places, external shocks kept coming, and assumptions got tested. Here's where things stand heading into the new year.
A lot happened this year. Some bets paid off, others didn't. Here's how we see markets heading into 2026—what's working, what's not, and where the smart money might look next.
What happens in New York, London, and Beijing still echoes here. Commodity prices shift, capital flows change direction, and suddenly local market dynamics look different. That global linkage isn't going away.
Price pressures tell different stories depending on where you look. Nigeria's inflation picture doesn't match Kenya's, which doesn't match South Africa's. Policy responses follow suit—some central banks are still tightening while others have room to ease.
For anyone investing across borders, exchange rates remain the wildcard. A solid equity pick can still underperform if the currency moves against you. That's just part of the game here.
Stock performance is a mixed bag. Banks benefit when rates rise, retailers struggle when wallets tighten. Knowing which sectors win in which conditions matters more than broad index bets.
Sector Deep DiveNovember 27, 2025
Banks Are Changing—Here's How
The old branch-heavy model is under pressure. Fintech upstarts, mobile money, and changing regulations are reshaping what banking looks like across the continent.
Traditional lenders are scrambling to go digital before digital-first competitors eat their lunch. Branch networks that once meant reach now look like expensive overhead. The ones adapting fastest tend to be winning.
More people have access to financial services than ever before, though plenty of gaps remain. Mobile money got millions their first taste of formal finance—now the question is what comes next.
Sector WatchNovember 23, 2025
Property Markets and the Cities Growing Around Them
Africa is urbanizing fast. That means demand for everything from apartments to warehouses. But getting projects built and financed? That's where it gets complicated.
The housing market is really two markets. Luxury units find buyers; affordable homes can't get built fast enough. The gap between what people can pay and what developers can profitably build remains wide.
Office and retail are evolving. Modern malls keep opening, work patterns keep shifting, and logistics hubs are suddenly attractive as e-commerce grows. Industrial real estate might be the sleeper opportunity.
Sector AnalysisNovember 20, 2025
Agricultural Sector Modernization and Food Security
Agriculture employs large portions of African populations while contributing significantly to many economies. Sector modernization addresses productivity gaps, though implementation faces practical challenges.
Smallholder farmers dominate agricultural production in most markets, operating with limited mechanization and variable input access. Commercial farming operations grow in scale and sophistication, particularly in markets with clearer land tenure systems.
Food security concerns drive policy discussions across the continent. Import dependencies for staple foods create vulnerability to global price shocks and supply disruptions.
Policy WatchNovember 17, 2025
Rules of the Game: Regulation Across Markets
Good rules help markets grow. Bad ones hold them back. African regulators are trying to find the balance—some faster than others.
Most exchanges are tightening disclosure requirements and governance standards. It's a slow process, but the direction is clear: move toward global norms while staying practical about local realities.
Regional deals to link markets and reduce friction sound great on paper. Actually making them work takes time, and progress is patchy depending on which countries you're watching.
Numbers Worth Watching
How the major metrics stack up
GDP Growth (Avg)
4.2%
↑ +0.3% YoY
Sub-Saharan Africa forecast
FDI Inflows
$83B
↑ +12% YoY
2025 projected total
Inflation (Median)
7.8%
↓ -1.2% YoY
Improving from 2025
Intra-Africa Trade
18%
↑ +2% YoY
AfCFTA momentum
Region by Region
The short version on what's happening where
East Africa
Tech startups getting traction
Big infrastructure projects underway
Cross-border trade picking up
Our take:Looking good
West Africa
Oil bouncing back
Fintech growing fast
Consumer spending holds up
Our take:Mixed signals
Southern Africa
Mining still delivering
Deepest financial markets
Green energy push
Our take:Looking good
North Africa
Factories humming again
Tourists coming back
Solar and wind gaining
Our take:Looking good
From Our Research Team
What we're thinking about right now
"Local investors matter more than they used to. When global money pulls back, domestic funds are picking up the slack."
Research TeamMacro Strategy
"The hype phase is over for fintech. Now it's about who actually makes money. That's a healthier market."
Sector AnalysisTechnology Focus
"Don't ignore the currency angle. Spreading bets across countries gives you some natural protection."
FX StrategyRisk Management
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Read Full Outlook
December 1, 2025
10 min read
Tech startups getting traction
